Pawel Kuczynski The matter of fact is that geopolitical experts, generals and military marketing experts have definitely agreed that there won’t be a Third World War. Namely, if there is a war, and it’s all the more likely that there will be, it will be the First Global War! Strong thought, worthy of military intelligence. It remains a mystery how is it possible that the military everywhere in the world buys the smartest people, and does the dumbest things. The very phrase “global war” is not derived from one’s wisdom, analysis, but probably from infantilism of senior military officers. Perhaps out of their passion for the eponymous iPhone video game, which blurs the difference between a real war and a video game. Or maybe because ROH (Ring of Horror) “Global War” – wrestling circus, merely an area of tense primitive commercialism for the masses, is filled with that phrase that works. In the news, which got us interested in the topic, about the camp where SIPC Zilots train minors in the use of weapons, the most wicked is the prioress, who seeks to pull the children away from the computers by giving them guns. Does a symbiosis of Arkan (who turned young football fans into killers) and Bishop Filaret (wearing a priesthood robe and a machine gun in front of Vukovar) arise? In the context of the global escalation of hatred and killing, Serbian cannon baby-beef is not to be dismissed easily.

Although our domestic rubbish is very attractive, the subject should be approached by using wide-angle lenses. I know that the saying “nobody asks frogs’ opinion when draining the swamp” is cynical, intolerant and rude in nature, but, every now and then, I can’t resist it, because it is our position in the world. I’m afraid that even the conflicts in the Middle East, the threat of Ali Khamenei, the supreme religious leader of Iran, that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza  and that he will arm the Palestinians, is not a global challenge, although both Israel and Iran are likely to have atomic bombs. And not only bombs, but also paranoiacs willing to easily sacrifice their own lives .  Still, the global nerve game is played on other fields.

Although I have repeatedly swore on the “Conspiracy theory” by Jovan Byford, it is still hard for me to figure out whether I’m becoming its pray when, for example, I look at the statistics on the growth of production of shale gas in the United States by 800 percent from 2007 to 2013, with estimates that its period of exploitation is at least another 100 years. America must find a buyer for the gas it already has more than it should. Energy voracious China has discovered its own reserves of the same type of gas, so it is not interested in the American kind and in particular, as we shall see later in the text, for strategic reasons. Europe remains as the only serious market, but first you need to squeeze out Russia in order to take its place.

Ukraine, where almost all Russian gas pipelines are located was given the position of the valve at which the Russian gas will be turned off. “South Stream” and “Nabucco”, the alternative pipelines, are experiencing horrible obstructions which reveal shameful European inferiority in the game. Are the killed Ukrainians and unfortunates on the Malaysian aircraft collateral damage  in the big game? Russia is defending its interests with an elegance of a Siberian bear. Its resuscitation of an imperial glory means orthodox imperial seizure of territory – the Crimea, for starters. Of course there are deeper historical reasons that are easy to harness when needed. American submarines in the Barents Sea show that the United States are completing its circle of “steel and fire” around the “totalitarian” regimes (Russia and China). Putin (together with the limp Russia) is slowly becoming a loser, and it is really nerve wrecking, as we will see in the case of America. So, I wonder now if I was overwhelmed by a paranoid conspiracy or is it still more or less reasonable conclusion.

As I managed to understand only one man was awarded the Nobel Prize posthumously – a Canadian Ralph Steinman, for medicine . I didn’t, however, manage to make out what happens to those who were handed the award on a plate and failed when they should have justified it. Of course, I am talking about the President Barack Obama, to whom the Nobel committee did an amazing precedent by giving him the award in advance in accordance with the general manifestation of hope that the new American president will finally steer the world in a good direction. It will certainly never do that again. I’m not the only one who was rooting for Obama, and now wonders if Bush Jr. is a less tragic figure, because we were clear about him from the beginning. The first promise that Obama gave as the president-elect was to abolish the infamous prison in Guantanamo. He is already in the middle of the second term, and those unfortunates or criminals in Guantanamo are still sitting there without any court proceedings. It is an ugly fact and argument for the lack of faith in the American myth of justice and the judiciary.

If anyone had shown the weakness of the American President to the world, it was Netanyahu, i.e. Israel. By refusing ultimatums about Gaza, first made by the vice-president Kerry, and then by President Obama, he has shown that these two don’t mean much. And it’s an ugly realization. Without massive American support, Israel would be wiped off the face of the earth. It would be an injustice, but it is a fact. Does this mean that Israel is supported by someone even more important? Can the impression that someone other than the President governs the United States be avoided, taking into account Guantanamo and Israel? And there are no proofs that it is Congress (Republican) or the Senate (Democratic). Residents of South Side – the black slum in Chicago, declared president Obama the worst president in the history of the United States on July 13th. Agencies later confirmed this on a larger sample. Disappointed fans are always intemperate.

By the way, that president of the United States of truncated reputation opened the summit of representatives of 50 African countries on the sixth of this month in Washington. Abubakar Shekau, the leader of Boko Haram, wasn’t invited to the summit, it would have been too much, but the President of South Sudan, Salva Kiir, who massacred 10,000 members of the Nuer tribe of all ages and sexes with his private army of 15,000 warriors on his way to power, was. Perhaps his recommendation was the fact that he always wears a black cowboy hat, even in bed, like James Cagney in “Oklahoma Kid”. Those more important than me are rubbing Kiir into Washington’s face. Others defend it by saying that that same Kiir has already been in (the dictatorial, communist) China. Obama is already – “a loser”, which is the hardest American curse. The worst thing is that he is losing from the Chinese, who he still slurs, so he advised them in a recent interview that they “should stop being satisfied with the role of producers of low-cost goods.” He ignores the fact that China has largely learned what America knows, even technologically surpassed it at some points, and that its real problem is whether it will be able to build a civilized, humane and peaceful society.

London The Economist published an interview the other day with Obama, very statesmanlike and boring. Not an ounce of that enthusiasm, broadmindedness and charm from the beginning of Obama’s career. Two statements are key: “I will help my Africa to change the world” and “Beijing pushes until it meets resistance: we must be prepared to be much tougher.”

The crown of his campaign for “his” Africa with a future was the promise that American companies will invest $ 14 billion in the Black Continent. Too late! President’s staff should have known about “The Heritage Foundation Map of China Global Investments” from which it is evident that there is no continent so systematically covered by Chinese investments such as Africa. According to the data of Wilson Center China invested 40 billion dollars in Africa last year. During the past five years it invested on average 30 billion dollars a year. China exceeded United States in 2009 in investments in Africa. Foreign exchange USA – Africa amounted to 99.8 billion in 2012, and China – Africa 198.5 billion dollars. At the political level, Chinese leaders also surpassed Obama. The President Xi Jinping was inaugurated in March of last year, and in April he made a tour of Africa, thus emphasizing that Africa is the most important for China. Before him almost all Chinese presidents went there almost every year, and prime ministers and ministers several times a year. Africa is the source of raw materials and energy, but also a growing market for China. Based on its development, China is building its present and future, so it does business relatively fairly and trains local human resources for all qualified jobs. Africans generally love Obama, don’t love America and deeply hate their unscrupulous companies. They are becoming more and more accustomed to the Chinese.

Let’s see what the Obama’s message that “we should be a lot tougher on Beijing” means. I’m afraid that this is what it means to say that things got serious. As part of the campaign to curb China which has begun to take lead over America in foreign trade, GDP, presence in Africa …the shield was found which should restrain China and reduce its opportunities for progress. With American impulse and consent of an aggressive Japan prime minister, he was able to secure complete agreement of all ministers to change Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution during the last days of July. That article, which is said to have been dictated by the winner, General MacArthur, says that Japan will never again be able to have the right to military operations outside its own territory and weapons which allow it to attack another country. China just got a good reason to suddenly start shifting investments from peacetime production for export in even greater production of tools for killing! I’m not saying that either of the two sides will start an aggression, but they will undoubtedly be forced to retreat from the world economy and thus create space for American exports, which is decreasing every year. Maybe it was not intentional, but sounds logical that it is so.

As changes of the constitution everywhere, including Japan, require voting of both houses of parliament, thus Abe, in order to avoid the uncertainty of the vote, tried to include the change into the form of a “re-reading” and the agencies claim that more than half of the Japanese support him! The irony is that America, according to the peace treaty that it dictated, is obliged to monitor compliance of the Article 9! In the Tokyo subway, a young man poured gasoline, set himself on fire and shouted into a megaphone for as long as he could: “Do not surrender Article 9.” China and South Korea  filed a strong protest jointly. These two countries have the most reason to dread, because they have experienced Japanese war madness. “Abe has lit a match to illuminate the powder magazine” / … / “Will Japan survive Abe’s ambitions” – says The Japan Times. This is not just a question of Japan, it must concern the conscience of the entire world. Today, the wars are again fought by the directive of Pope Innocent III given in 1208 to the Crusaders before the conquest of the Cathars and Bogomils “Kill whoever you encounter and the let the God pick out his own afterwards” .

I wasn’t going to skip the Chinese annexationist ventures. I’m not the devil’s advocate. While Vietnam was at war with the Americans, its neighbors and with itself, China landed an army on the uninhabited Paracel archipelago in the eastern part of the South China Sea, about 200 miles from Vietnam. It would have been a somewhat comical war story, if it didn’t turn out that the archipelago had oil and gas, so, besides Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Japan showed interest in it. China is, therefore, strengthening its navy (the construction of two new aircraft carriers is ongoing) and developing an alliance with Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar (Burma) called “The pearl necklace” in order to obtain maritime priorities for its navy in order to control the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. The answer to this was “Blue Water”, navy maneuvers by Japan, India and the United States in the same area. A balance should be established, because of Malacca Strait, through which 40% of international trade and 80% of oil intended for China goes. Occupied Tibet, which has made economic and civil progress, but is still definitely occupied, wouldn’t even be a topic anymore if it wasn’t for the exotic Dalai Lama, who walks naked around the world and preaches freedom to his followers. And another thing: China has the most fantastic “fifth column” in all countries of the world!

During the bombing of Serbia Edward Luttwak , geo-strategic advisor to President Bush Jr. explained a scheme of establishing guilt for the war in Yugoslavia, which I would summarize into the following, by memory: First, a war between Serbia and Croatia broke out. One side accused the other of starting. We know that both are prone to lie, so we divided the culpability in half. Then the war broke out in Bosnia and again the same principle was applied, and then in Kosovo. When we add up all that, it turns out that the Bosnians, Croats and Kosovars are guilty 50% each and the Serbs – 150%.Thus, it is clear who should be bombed. Lets’ apply this think tank arithmetic principle to the confrontation of three strongest countries in the world. Russia’s military budget for 2014 amounted to 69.3 billion, China’s 131.5 billion  and America’s 682.5, plus the funds approved by the Congress, which amounts to 756.4 billion. America spends as much as the next 12 countries in total! Luttwak’s  arithmetic would easily show who is to blame, not only if there is a conflict, because then it’s too late, but for causing dangerous tension in the world and pushing people into a global hatred, arming, impoverishment…

Stephen Walt, a professor of international law at Harvard posed the question “Is America suffering from war-mania?” and gave five reasons why the answer is “yes”: 1. Because it can; 2. Because it has no serious enemies; 3. Because it has a mercenary army; 4. Because its military leadership is foolish enough; 5. Because the Congress decides on war. Squalor of today’s political elites affects the whole world, not just America. Perhaps only the pope Francisco, for the tragic reason of Christians’ suffering, but also personal beliefs, still advocates in favor of peace and rises above the rest. Let’s remember Kennedy, Schumann, Mitterand, Adenauer, Brandt, Tito, Palme, Gorbachev… they fought for peace and the future in friendship. They made history, and history created them. Today’s politicians are created by marketing experts, spin doctors, media, power centers and their personal unbridled desire for power.


The phrase “Global war” is quite old. Back in 2001, charmingly full-of-data Umberto Eco wrote “Scenario for the global war”, and finished that terrifying burlesque of absurdity with a very serious sentence: “In an era of globalization, global war is impossible, because it would lead to the defeat of all.” Is this not a glimmer of optimism that we lack?

Translated by Marijana Simic

Pešč, 18.08.2014.

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Milutin Mitrović (1931-2020) novinar, 1954. kao urednik Studenta primljen u Udruženje novinara i ostao trajno privržen tom poslu. Studirao prava i italijansku književnost, ali nijedne od tih studija nije završio, pa je zato studirao za svaki tekst. Najveći deo radnog veka proveo u nedeljniku Ekonomska politika, gde je obavljao poslove od saradnika do glavnog urednika i direktora. U toj novini je osnovno pravilo bilo da se čitaocu pruži što više relevantnih informacija, a da se sopstvena mudrovanja ostave za susrete sa prijateljima u bifeu. Tekstovi su mu objavljivani ili prenošeni u kanadskim, američkim, finskim i italijanskim medijima, a trajnije je sarađivao sa švajcarskim časopisom Galatea. Pisao za Biznis i finansije i Peščanik. Fabrika knjiga i Peščanik su mu objavili knjigu „Dnevnik globalne krize“.

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